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Published June 30, 2026
Why Apple might win the AI race in the long run
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Summary
Apple isn't out of the AI race just because it isn't leading the frontier—I argue that waiting while OpenAI, Google, and others burn trillions on experimentation could leave Apple in a stronger long-term position. I point to Friendster versus Facebook, Netscape versus Chrome, and Vine versus TikTok to show that being first rarely guarantees winning. My take is that Apple can let others absorb the trial and error, then use its cash, hardware, and tools to integrate the best AI models when the dust settles.
Key takeaways
- Being first doesn't mean winning—Friendster, Netscape, and Vine created early demand but lost the long-term market to later entrants.
- Let competitors fund the expensive frontier R&D, then enter when the technology is proven and commoditized.
- Apple's real advantage is cash, hardware, and distribution—enough to adopt the best models and surround them with better tools.
- Don't mistake not leading the frontier for being out of the race entirely.
Description
Most of you all have just assumed that apple is out of the AI race for good, but I think they could make a really strong comeback in the future if they play their cards right.
Transcript
Just because you're not first in an industry doesn't mean you're losing. The world's first social network was called Friendster, launched in 2002, but it was Facebook that ultimately captured the market. The first browser was Netscape, but it was Chrome that ultimately won. Vine was the first app to create demand for short porn video, but it was TikTok that actually won in the long term.
So all these AI labs, these OpenAI and Google, they're spending trillions of dollars on the frontier. Meanwhile, Apple is just sitting back and letting other companies go bankrupt on research and experimentation.
And when the dust settles, they're going to be in a very good position with a lot of excess cash to just use the best AI models with the best hardware and the best tools surrounding it. Because all of the experimentation, all the trial and error, these other companies have already done it for them.
So even though they're not part of the race right now technically, I still wouldn't entirely throw them out either.
Dude, you’re at the bottom of my landing page.
Just book a call already if you’re that interested.
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